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A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Another forecast miss out on from a U.S. megacap combines with caution ahead of January's work report to keep a cover on stocks into Friday's open - with resilient long-dated Treasuries squashing the yield curve to its flattest for the year.
Much like Microsoft and Alphabet over the previous number of weeks, Amazon dissatisfied Wall Street late Thursday as issue about cloud computing doused income and profit forecasts and sent its stock down 4% over night.
The most current underwhelming outlook from the "Magnificent 7" top U.S. tech companies reins in an otherwise positive S&P 500, with concerns about heavy invests in expert system stimulated again by the advancement of China's low-cost DeepSeek model.
The DeepSeek buzz, by contrast, continues to fire up Chinese stocks. They included another 1%-plus earlier on Friday despite ongoing concerns about a mounting Sino-U.S. trade war and Monday's deadline for Beijing's vindictive tariffs.
But the day's macro occasions will likely take precedence, with the release of the January U.S. work report and long-lasting revisions of previous task development.
Job growth most likely slowed to 170,000 in January from just over quarter of million the prior month, partially restrained by wild fires in California and cold weather condition throughout much of the country.
Those distortions include an additional issue to the readout, which will include annual benchmark revisions, new population weights and updates to the seasonal adjustments.
The week's sweep of other labor market reports, however, do indicate some cooling of conditions - with task openings falling, layoffs increasing and weekly out of work claims ticking higher.
With the Federal Reserve currently attempting to parse the impact of President Donald Trump's brand-new financial policies, payroll distortions simply cloud the photo even further.
And as Fed authorities insist they can wait and see for a bit, Fed futures remain trained on 2 more rates of interest cuts this year - resuming about midyear.
The Treasury market is more encouraged though - sustaining the early week's sharp drop in 10-year yields into today's tasks report and seeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve compress to the flattest it's remained in 6 weeks.
Helping the long end today has been reassuring signals from the Treasury's quarterly reimbursing report that a "calling out" of debt auctions to longer maturities is not yet in the works, as many had feared.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has likewise firmly insisted the new government's focus would be on getting long-term rates down instead of pressuring the Fed to alleviate too soon.
Reuters analysis shows Trump has placed hangs on 10s of billions of dollars in congressionally-approved spending for projects across the U.S. that range from Iowa soybean farmers adopting greener practices to a Virginia railway expansion.
Bessent likewise doubled down on his view the administration wishes to retain a "strong dollar" policy. But he colored that with a sideswipe. "What we don ´ t desire is other nations to compromise their currencies, to manipulate their trade."
But with the Fed on hold, main banks around the world continued reducing rates of interest apace this week - partially on issues a trade tariff war will damage their economies.
With a sharp cut in its UK development projection, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by a quarter point on Thursday - with 2 of its policymakers choosing a larger half point decrease. Sterling deteriorated initially, but has steadied considering that.
Mexico's main bank also cut its interest rate by 50 basis points on Thursday - stating it might cut by a comparable magnitude in the future as inflation cools and after the economy contracted somewhat late last year.
The European Central Bank, meantime, is expected to launch its updated quote of what it sees as a "neutral" interest rate later Friday.
That's essential as it notifies the ECB argument about whether it needs to cut rates below what considers neutral to restore the flagging euro zone economy. It's presently seen around 2% - 75bps below the standing policy rate.
In thrall to the payrolls release, the dollar index was steady on Friday. Dollar/yen briefly notched a brand-new low for the year, nevertheless, as Bank of Japan tightening speculation simmers.
In Europe, stocks stalled near record highs as the heavy earnings season there unfolded.
Banks there have a been a standout winner today and again on Friday. Danske Bank, Denmark's greatest lending institution, was up 7.1% after it posted record annual earnings and release a new share buyback program.
Key advancements that ought to offer more instructions to U.S. markets in the future Friday: * U.S. January employment report, University of Michigan February customer survey, setiathome.berkeley.edu December customer credit; Canada Jan work report; Mexico Jan inflation * European Reserve bank updates its quote of "R *" neutral interest rate * Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks * U.S. business incomes: Cboe Global Markets, Fortive, Kimco Realty * Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba visits United States
(By Mike Dolan, modifying by XXXX mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)
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INDEXING JOURNAL:
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Cloudy Amazon, Payrolls and A Flatter Curve
by Royal Hoyt (2025-02-10)
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A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Another forecast miss out on from a U.S. megacap combines with caution ahead of January's work report to keep a cover on stocks into Friday's open - with resilient long-dated Treasuries squashing the yield curve to its flattest for the year.
Much like Microsoft and Alphabet over the previous number of weeks, Amazon dissatisfied Wall Street late Thursday as issue about cloud computing doused income and profit forecasts and sent its stock down 4% over night.
The most current underwhelming outlook from the "Magnificent 7" top U.S. tech companies reins in an otherwise positive S&P 500, with concerns about heavy invests in expert system stimulated again by the advancement of China's low-cost DeepSeek model.
The DeepSeek buzz, by contrast, continues to fire up Chinese stocks. They included another 1%-plus earlier on Friday despite ongoing concerns about a mounting Sino-U.S. trade war and Monday's deadline for Beijing's vindictive tariffs.
But the day's macro occasions will likely take precedence, with the release of the January U.S. work report and long-lasting revisions of previous task development.
Job growth most likely slowed to 170,000 in January from just over quarter of million the prior month, partially restrained by wild fires in California and cold weather condition throughout much of the country.
Those distortions include an additional issue to the readout, which will include annual benchmark revisions, new population weights and updates to the seasonal adjustments.
The week's sweep of other labor market reports, however, do indicate some cooling of conditions - with task openings falling, layoffs increasing and weekly out of work claims ticking higher.
With the Federal Reserve currently attempting to parse the impact of President Donald Trump's brand-new financial policies, payroll distortions simply cloud the photo even further.
And as Fed authorities insist they can wait and see for a bit, Fed futures remain trained on 2 more rates of interest cuts this year - resuming about midyear.
The Treasury market is more encouraged though - sustaining the early week's sharp drop in 10-year yields into today's tasks report and seeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve compress to the flattest it's remained in 6 weeks.
Helping the long end today has been reassuring signals from the Treasury's quarterly reimbursing report that a "calling out" of debt auctions to longer maturities is not yet in the works, as many had feared.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has likewise firmly insisted the new government's focus would be on getting long-term rates down instead of pressuring the Fed to alleviate too soon.
Reuters analysis shows Trump has placed hangs on 10s of billions of dollars in congressionally-approved spending for projects across the U.S. that range from Iowa soybean farmers adopting greener practices to a Virginia railway expansion.
Bessent likewise doubled down on his view the administration wishes to retain a "strong dollar" policy. But he colored that with a sideswipe. "What we don ´ t desire is other nations to compromise their currencies, to manipulate their trade."
But with the Fed on hold, main banks around the world continued reducing rates of interest apace this week - partially on issues a trade tariff war will damage their economies.
With a sharp cut in its UK development projection, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by a quarter point on Thursday - with 2 of its policymakers choosing a larger half point decrease. Sterling deteriorated initially, but has steadied considering that.
Mexico's main bank also cut its interest rate by 50 basis points on Thursday - stating it might cut by a comparable magnitude in the future as inflation cools and after the economy contracted somewhat late last year.
The European Central Bank, meantime, is expected to launch its updated quote of what it sees as a "neutral" interest rate later Friday.
That's essential as it notifies the ECB argument about whether it needs to cut rates below what considers neutral to restore the flagging euro zone economy. It's presently seen around 2% - 75bps below the standing policy rate.
In thrall to the payrolls release, the dollar index was steady on Friday. Dollar/yen briefly notched a brand-new low for the year, nevertheless, as Bank of Japan tightening speculation simmers.
In Europe, stocks stalled near record highs as the heavy earnings season there unfolded.
Banks there have a been a standout winner today and again on Friday. Danske Bank, Denmark's greatest lending institution, was up 7.1% after it posted record annual earnings and release a new share buyback program.
Key advancements that ought to offer more instructions to U.S. markets in the future Friday: * U.S. January employment report, University of Michigan February customer survey, setiathome.berkeley.edu December customer credit; Canada Jan work report; Mexico Jan inflation * European Reserve bank updates its quote of "R *" neutral interest rate * Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks * U.S. business incomes: Cboe Global Markets, Fortive, Kimco Realty * Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba visits United States
(By Mike Dolan, modifying by XXXX mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)
Add comment